Fisheries and Aquaculture and Their Potential Roles in Development: An Assessment of the Current Evidence

Commissioned by the International Sustainability Unity, this report investigates a number of innovative solutions that have been developed to deal with five key challenges that are impeding progress in achieving sustainable fisheries: overcapacity; perverse subsidies; poor governance; lack of data; and by-catch and discards. These key challenges are interlinked and affect the sustainability of fisheries both directly as well as indirectly by undermining instances of good management. Through 22 case studies demonstrating good practice, we explore how these challenges have been addressed around the world and how these approaches might be scaled up and applied in other fisheries. Each case study draws on published material and interviews with key people involved in the fishery. The main report draws lessons from these case studies

The Brexit deal and UK fisheries—has reality matched the rhetoric?

Fisheries management has been a strongly contested aspect of the UK’s position in the EU since UK accession, with the fishing industry frequently questioning both the efficacy and fairness of arrangements. During the campaign for UK exit (Brexit) from the EU, and the subsequent negotiations of a new legal and political relationship from 2016 to 2020, senior UK political leaders strongly committed to deliver radically changed fisheries arrangements with respect to the three central issues: regulatory autonomy; access to waters; and quota shares, all while maintaining minimal trade impacts. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement diverges from this Brexit rhetoric. While some regulatory independence has been achieved, UK fisheries management continues in a state of interdependence and significant EU access to UK waters remains, even in the 6–12 nautical mile territorial waters. While the UK gained an increase in quota shares which is estimated to reach 107 thousand tonnes of landed weight annually by 2025 (an increase of 21.3% for quota species and 16.9% for all species, or 17.8% and 12.4% by value), this pales in comparison to the UK Government’s stated ambitions for zonal attachment (achieving 68% by weight and by value - a potential shortfall of 229,000 tonnes / £281 million). This modest change explains the negative reaction of the fishing industry and claims of betrayal in the face of the UK Government’s announcement of a “successful” deal. The stark delivery gap between rhetoric and reality means the UK government faces a challenging start to managing fisheries outside of the Common Fisheries Policy

A Risk Benefit Analysis of Mariculture as a means to Reduce the Impacts of Terrestrial Production of Food and Energy

The Scottish Aquaculture Research Forum (SARF) and WWF-UK commissioned this study to investigate whether the pressure on land and freshwater for future food and energy resources, and impacts on the climate, related to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, may be reduced through expansion of global mariculture. The study has undertaken a high level assessment of the ‘environmental footprint’ of global mariculture and terrestrial-based food and energy production systems through the collation and assessment of available Life Cycle Assessments (LCA) for key food products (beef, pork, chicken, freshwater finfish, marine finfish, shellfish and crustacean species) and biomass (terrestrial and algal) for energy production. The outputs of the footprint comparison were then used to assess the risks and benefits of increasing global mariculture, through the development of projected future scenarios in which mariculture contributes differing proportions of projected future food requirements. The analysis also qualitatively considered the socio-economic and wider environmental risks and benefits (e.g. in relation to ecosystem services) of global mariculture expansion, where expansion may occur geographically and whether future technological developments may help mitigate against identified impacts. The study identifies the key uncertainties and limitations of the risk/benefit analysis and makes prioritised recommendations on how these limitations can be addressed and the analysis developed for more regional or site-specific assessments

UK National Ecosystem Assessment Follow-on. Work package 7: Operationalising scenarios in the UK National Ecosystem Assessment Follow-on

Summary Study aims and approach An aim of the UK NEA Follow-on (UK NEAFO) is to develop and communicate the evidence base of the UK NEA and make it relevant to decision and policy making. It also provides an important opportunity for those working on scenario methods and concepts to scrutinise the role of futures thinking in the management of ecosystem services and so develop their effectiveness as decision support tools. In this study we have therefore asked: how can the UK NEA scenarios help us to understand, manage and communicate the consequences of changes in ecosystem services across all scales? There are many different understandings about what scenarios are, and what they should be used for. To clarify the issues surrounding the role of scenarios, we have approached this work from two angles. We have firstly looked at the way the storylines can support decision making processes. Secondly, we have looked at the content of the scenarios themselves and explored how through the use of models the UK NEA scenarios as products might be refined to enhance their value as analytical tools. Scenarios in Action We used the opportunity of a series of meetings with stakeholders to develop the UK NEA scenarios from a process perspective. These meetings took various forms, but throughout the main aim was to find out whether people found the scenarios sufficiently believable, challenging and relevant. In workshops organised by the scenario team in Leeds, Edinburgh and Belfast, we worked with participants on a series of tasks designed to help them immerse themselves in the scenarios and reflect on them critically. While those we worked with had many comments about the scenarios in detail, the evidence we collected from these meetings suggests that the majority of people found the scenarios to be plausible and the projections consistent. The majority also agreed with the proposition that the suite of scenarios as a whole addressed a relevant ranges of issues. We explored with the workshop participants several ways in which the storylines could be enriched, by: developing the narrative about the way people might live in the different scenario worlds; developing time-lines for the scenarios; thinking more deeply about regional and local differences; and, exploring how the scenarios would frustrate or facilitate the embedding of the ecosystem approach in decision making. We found that while all of these elements had value in terms of stimulating discussion and understanding of the scenarios, they were not needed in order to address deficiencies in the original storylines in terms of plausibility or credibility. The evidence we collected therefore suggests that the existing narratives are probably sufficient as an entry point for discussions about the future of ecosystem services in the UK. What was apparent from the observations that we made in the workshops was that it would probably be a mistake to ‘over-engineer’ or ‘over-specify’ the narratives because there needs to be room for discussion and probing. We were struck how people took the existing scenarios and found new features and ideas in them than had not been identified by in the original work. For example, in one session National Security, with its emphasis on resource efficiency, was found to be ‘greener’ than it initially looks. In another Local Stewardship was discovered to need some degree of central control and regulation to work efficiently. These kinds of discussion are evidence of the reflection, deliberation and social learning that can be promoted by using the UK NEA scenarios. UK NEAFO Work Package 7: Operationalising scenarios 7 In the workshop we organised in Belfast we found that the presentation of the scenarios could be tailored to a specific region (i.e. Northern Ireland) and, through area-specific breakout groups during the workshop, to specific localities within it. However, our experiences here emphasised the need for considerable preparation, consultation with the stakeholder community, and changing of the workshop format to make the scenarios intelligible and engaging to local stakeholders. Work on the use of the scenarios in a more explicit decision support role will be reported via the work on response options (WP8), which considered how they could be used to ‘stress-test’ policy response options. The experience gained from the work undertaken in the early stages of UK NEAFO was that the scenarios appeared to provide a suitable platform for the work, but that the stresstesting methodology needed to be refined. During the follow-on we have also interviewed policy leads in Defra, for example, to gain a better picture of policy needs, and the way scenarios might usefully serve them. Apart from the challenge of ‘relevance’ it is clear that the time needed for people to work with scenarios probably means that they are less useful to policy customers in the context of their everyday work but can be useful at a very broad and strategic level. However, there is clearly an opportunity for scenarios to be used more extensively through commissioned work. The importance of commissioned work has been emphasised during the follow-on phase by invitations to observe the work of the CAMERAS1 work in Scotland, and the Noise Study being undertaken for Defra. Both are actively using the UK NEA scenarios. The outcomes of these on-going studies will be reported elsewhere by others. Nevertheless, even though these projects are at a preliminary stage they help us better understand how scenarios can be used to communicate the consequences of changes in ecosystem services to different groups and individuals. Scenarios as products: developing the model base The UK NEA scenarios were initially used to make both qualitative and quantitative projections. The quantitative work mainly involved modelling how land cover would change under the different scenarios (Haines-Young et al. 2011). Although these data were used to make an analysis of the changes in marginal economic values for some ecosystem services during the initial phase of the UK NEA, they have not been fully exploited. At the time it was recognised that there were many gaps in our understanding of the links between land cover and ecosystem services; UK NEAFO has provided the opportunity to address some of these deficiencies. Thus in the follow-on work we have sought to extend the range of models that can be used to explore the UK NEA scenarios. The modelling work has not sought to change the scenarios fundamentally, but to enrich the insights that can be derived from exploring the differences between them in a systematic, and quantitative way. The goal, has been to extend the analysis that can be built up around the narratives and hence enrich the scenarios as ‘products’. Four topic areas were selected as the focus for this work: flood and drought risk (based on an analysis of changes in river flows), biodiversity (farmland birds), marine and cultural ecosystem services. Catchment modelling We looked at the effects of land-use change on river flows under each of the UK NEA scenarios. We modelled hydrological discharge within 34 UK catchments and calculated four hydrological indicators for each catchment: average annual discharge, flood hazard, and Q5 and Q95 (measures of the magnitude of unusually high (Q5) and unusually low (Q95) flows). For our flood hazard indicator we calculated the interval between floods of a size currently occurring every 30 years. Although we kept climate constant in the models, as we wanted to isolate the effects of land cover change, we ran them for both the high and low climate change land cover variants for each scenario. 1 A Coordinated Agenda for Marine, Environment and Rural Affairs Science, 2011-2016. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Research/About/EBAR/CAMERASsite In general, the ‘green’ scenarios, Nature@Work and Green and Pleasant Land, as well as National Security, were associated with lower flows than currently occur (when measured using any of the four indicators). However, for a given scenario there was a great deal of variability between catchments in terms of the size and statistical significance of the differences. The magnitude of change across all scenarios and catchments ranged from -13% to 6% for average annual discharge, -14 to 7% for Q5, -24 to 27 % for Q95 and -16 to 36 years for flood hazard. Differences were particularly evident between Nature@Work and World Markets, with the latter associated with higher flows than occur currently, and the majority of the statistically significant increased flows. Some catchments showed significant changes that were different in sign between these two scenarios. Taken together, our results indicate that that in managing change a balance needs to be struck between alleviating the likelihoods of increased drought and increased flooding, depending on the likely effects of these phenomena in the catchment. Farmland birds We looked at the relationship between land use data produced during the first phase of the UK NEA and models of farmland bird populations, in 1kmx1km squares covered by the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and Winter Farmland Bird Survey (WFBS). We used Functional Space Models to estimate the annual population growth rate under each scenario of each of the 19 farmland bird species used to calculate the farmland bird index (Gregory et al. 2004). We used this to look at the relationship between land use under the scenarios and: i) the average population growth rate for all 19 species, and ii) a subset of 11 species showing declining population trends under current land use. Overall we found that land use change across the scenarios had relatively little impact. However, the only statistically significant change was for declining species under Green and Pleasant Land, where population growth rates became significantly more negative. We used Mechanistic Models to estimate the number of over-winter ‘bird-days’ for two types of seed-eating farmland birds, a yellowhammer-type and linnet-type These species were chosen because they differ in their food preferences with respect to cereal, oil and weed seeds, but between them are representative of the diversity of seed-eating farmland birds as a whole. We found a significant decline in the ecological value of lowland agricultural areas for these species across all UK NEA scenarios, but the greatest impact was for scenarios with the highest monetised values for ecosystem services, as measured by the first phase of the UK NEA (Nature@Work, Green and Pleasant Land). This appears to be due to the fact that, compared with the baseline, the area of arable crops declines most sharply under these scenarios, due partly to changes in land use but also because of conversion of arable land to other habitats important for ecosystem services (e.g. woodland). Taken together these results imply a trade-off between overall value for ecosystem services and conservation of farmland birds, and highlight the need to consider the specific impacts of land use change on biodiversity, alongside other ecosystem services. Marine ecosystem services Only a limited attempt was made to model marine ecosystem services during the first phase of the UK NEA. In the follow-on we have conducted preliminary work to produce spatially explicit models for three important marine ecosystem services: fisheries landings, aquaculture production and carbon sequestration. We made comparisons between baseline data and time slices for 2015, 2030 UK NEAFO Work Package 7: Operationalising scenarios 9 and 2060 under four of the UK NEA scenarios that were considered most relevant for the sector, and mapped these across UK territorial waters. There is a high degree of uncertainty associated with the models, mainly due to a lack of suitable data and poor knowledge of the drivers of change. In many cases, in the absence of robust quantitative models, we needed to take the qualitative descriptions of the UK NEA scenarios and combine these with expert knowledge to estimate changes in the three types of ecosystem service. We estimated that in three of the four scenarios: Nature@Work, Local Stewardship and National Security, fisheries landings would be, by 2060 only slightly lower or at higher levels than they are today. Under World Markets, however, projected landings would decline significantly by 2060, due to a lack of regulation combined with high levels of investment from private capital. In the light of this, it was interesting that aquaculture was at higher levels under World Markets than under any of the other scenarios, although all of them showed higher levels than the baseline. This was because under this scenario more investment capital would be available to invest in fish farms. We believe that carbon sequestration would be most likely to be impacted by the World Markets and Natural Security, due to higher CO2 emissions causing an increase in ocean acidification. Our results, although tentative, mark a significant first step in attempts to map and project the impact of possible future change on marine ecosystem services. Cultural Ecosystem Services In the first phase of the UK NEA, the relationship between the drivers of change and cultural ecosystem services (CES) was mainly explored through the impact they had on land cover. For UK NEAFO, we additionally used the Monitor of Engagement for the Natural Environment (MENE) dataset. We examined how the UK NEA scenarios can be used as a framework to explore the relationship between the supply of cultural spaces in the landscape and peoples preferences for different types of natural spaces and practices in them. We have developed a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) that allows users to explore these relationships interactively and look at the potential impacts of changes socio-demographic structure of the kind described by the UK NEA scenarios. Our spatial analysis of the MENE data showed that people tend to select locations with higher woodland cover than the average for the surroundings, when they travel intermediate distances from their home, but that this tendency declines when they travel longer distances. Woodland cover is projected to double under both Nature@Work and Green and Pleasant Land, and both provide more opportunities to visit woodland close to home than under scenarios such as World Markets. However, our analysis shows that on the basis of the current geography of people and woodlands, the way planting is targeting under Green and Pleasant Land has the potential to deliver greater joint benefits from biodiversity change and cultural ecosystem services than Nature@Work. The BBN we have developed using the HUGIN Expert software allows the relationships within the MENE data to be explored interactively; it is hosted on a prototype website that is open to the wider community. By examining the relationships between socio-demographic characteristics of the MENE respondents, the types of natural spaces they visit and the activities they do in them, this BBN tool allows users to explore the impacts of possible future change on the supply and demand of CES. Conclusion How can plausible future scenarios help understand, manage and communicate the consequences of changes in ecosystem services across all scales? In this work we have shown that they can be used to promote understanding by the deliberative processes that they engender. The UK NEA scenarios appear to be sufficiently rich and comprehensive to support debate across a wide range of topic areas relevant to current policy concerns. The scenarios can also help understanding by providing a framework in which current models can be applied and the outcome used both to test the plausibility of the scenarios themselves and to deepen the insights that can be derived from them. These analytical ‘scenario products’ can be equally important both in terms of deepening our understanding of the assumptions on which the scenarios are built and in stimulating debate about their implications. We have shown that the distinction between the ‘process’ and ‘product’ dimensions of scenario thinking is a useful one, given the many ways scenarios can be used. The distinction clarifies some of the different purposes and problems that scenarios work seeks to address. However, our work also demonstrates that both components have their strengths, and neither can be taken isolation. If we are to use scenarios to understand, manage and communicate the consequences of changes in ecosystem services across different scales and in different contexts, then targeted analytical studies developed within the qualitative framework of the UK NEA scenarios, can enrich our understanding of today’s issues and how we might respond to them

Behind the Signs - a global review of fish sustainability information schemes

This paper presents the results of a global review of organisations that provide sustainable fisheries information — including ecolabels, recommendation lists and supermarkets — to consumers and supply chain intermediaries. It examined 17 organisations and key supermarkets that communicate on the sustainability of world fisheries and aquaculture products. Certification schemes assess a relatively small number of specific fisheries and indicate sustainability through labels. Recommendation lists cover more species and areas but in less detail. FAO guidelines for fisheries ecolabelling and aquaculture certification constituted the benchmarks with which improving conformance was found. However, significant variation in fisheries’ assessment exists, affecting the accuracy and precision of information and advice provided. Inconsistent approaches and contradictory advice among certification schemes and recommendation lists potentially increase consumer confusion and reduce their credibility. The review identifies seven critical attributes schemes must address — scope, accuracy, independence, precision, transparency, standardisation and cost-effectiveness — and recommends that certification schemes and recommendation lists enhance their consistency and credibility through compliance with these attributes and FAO guidelines. Fish sustainability information schemes play an important role in securing a sustainable future for the oceans. Uptake of this review’s recommendations should reduce consumer confusion and increase confidence in the benefits of sustainable purchasing

Fish Sustainability information Schemes: A Global Comparative Assessment and their Implications

This paper presents the findings of an 18 months global review of organisations providing sustainable fisheries information to consumers and other channel intermediaries completed in December 2009*. The project was managed by a consortium of nine organisations involved with seafood, the Fish Sustainability Information Group (FSIG), from around the world incorporating FAO. The review examined the key organisations that analyse, assess and provide data, guidance, disseminate and otherwise communicate on the sustainability of world fisheries and aquaculture to retailers, foodservice sectors, consumers and others. The methodology engaged through interviews the 17 organisations considered to be representative of those involved in leading seafood sustainability communications, in addition to web-site data gathered from a broader sample. Evaluation of the various respective communications was made regarding accuracy, scientific robustness and relevance. The data analysis presents a hitherto unique scope of comparison of the governance procedures and output of the world’s most significant organisations supplying seafood sustainability information.The paper then considers the implications of this analysis noting the respective merits and demerits of the two key categories identified: certification schemes and recommendation lists. Particular emphasis is placed upon how such instruments might improve in future with respect to seven critical criteria identified. The findings are then contextualised within current and emergent policy measures in both capture fisheries and aquaculture. The paper concludes with some prospective consideration of how such communications might become more efficient and effective in an era of increasingly complex measures received by audiences subjected to evermore complicated market signals.Keywords: Markets and Trade, Fisheries Economics, Markets and Label

Bright spots as climate‐smart marine spatial planning tools for conservation and blue growth

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The second workshop on lists of commercial fish and shellfish species for reporting of MSFD D3 (WKD3Lists2)

WKD3Lists2 created lists of regionally relevant commercial fish and shellfish species (and higher order taxa) for the use of Article 8 reporting by EU member states under Descriptor 3 of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). The regional taxa lists were based on landings data from the Fisheries Dependent Information data base (FDI) provided by EU member states and compiled by the Joint Research Centre (JRC). The taxonomy of landings data was consolidated by regional experts and the consolidated data were combined to obtain absolute and proportional landing weights and values for each (sub)re-gion, which were used to apply dual (weight and vale) selection thresholds to compile (sub)re-gional D3-taxa-lists. Regional D3-taxa-lists were produced for two MSFD regions (Baltic Sea & Black Sea) and eight MSFD subregions: The Greater North Sea, Celtic Seas, the Bay of Biscay and Iberian Coast, Mac-aronesia, Western Mediterranean, the Ionian Sea & Central Mediterranean, the Adriatic Sea and the Aegean-Levantine Sea. To exclude taxa with very low landing weights or value from the final lists, two types of thresh-olds (cumulative and minimum) with differing cut-off values were evaluated (90%, 95%, 98% and 99% for cumulative and 0.1% and 1% for minimum thresholds). Depending on the cut-off value, the number of taxa included varied substantially and in most (sub)regions the application of thresholds reduced the initial number of taxa by more than 50%. WKD3Lists2 did not recommend any threshold type or cut-off value to be applied generically in all (sub)regions, but identified trade-offs between inclusiveness and parsimony of relevant con-tent i.e. higher cut-off values will lead to longer lists including many taxa with relatively low landings weights/values. In some (sub)regions, thresholds with lower cut-off values (90% to 95%) were considered feasible by regional experts (Mediterranean subregions, Bay of Biscay and Iberian Coast, Macaronesia), whereas in other MSFD (sub)regions cut-off values in the range of 98-99% were considered as appropriate (Baltic Sea, Greater North Sea, Celtic Seas). The regional D3-taxa lists by WKD3Lists2 were created without considering the availability of data or assessments i.e. many species are included, for which no assessment information is avail-able. WKD3Lists2 decided on this approach because a representative selection of commercially targeted taxa was considered to indicate knowledge and data gaps in current data collection and assessment schemes. Regional species lists shall be used by EU member states for the national reporting of D3. Stocks and species from the regional lists shall be considered by member states, and additional stocks/species can be added where appropriate (e.g. those stocks/species of national or local of importance that do not appear on the regional lists). x WKD3Lists2 discussed and compiled recommendations on how Member States can complement the regional lists of D3-taxa. A key recommendation is to maintain taxa reported in 2018 under D3, even if they are not part of the regional D3-taxa list for 2024. Wherever possible, Member States should report on stock level. WKD3Lists2 also discussed linkages between D1 and D3-reporting of commercial taxa.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Workshop to review and progress the reported lists of eu msfd descriptor 3 ( (WKD3LISTS)

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Scoping the Potential Benefits of Undertaking a MA-style Assessment for England

Project Code: NR0118